The following are ~1000-word attempts to describe the current state of The UMC in a succinct manner that likely oversimplifies things with broad brush strokes. Nonetheless, they will be useful primers for newcomers to United Methodism, longtime members, or passersby looking to enter the conversation.

• How did we get here: Power & Polity versus People & Places (LINK)
• What happens now: General Conference 2024 (LINK)
• What future awaits us: Avoiding the Fundamentalist Future Trap (This Article!)

Part III: Avoiding Narrow Futures

Post-disaffiliations, both United Methodism and the Global Methodist Church are seeking to avoid the narrow future that is ahead of them.

• United Methodism is trying to avoid the fate of other sister mainline denominations that turned into smaller, like-minded traditions. Those denominations continue to affect change and grow disciples, to be sure, but no longer shape culture through people power and political influence. Since an inclusive worldwide Wesleyan denomination does not currently exist, creating one will enter into a new territory of incredible opportunity, but it’s a fine needle to thread.
• The Global Methodist Church is trying to avoid becoming another run-of-the-mill Baptist denomination, no matter how desperately some of their leaders want it to become a Methodist ACNA (odd how both futures have limits for clergywomen). Sadly, in the Global Methodist Church, the fundamentalist transformation is already happening as they recently moved their investments and health benefits to a Southern Baptist-affiliated pension fund that does not affirm women’s ordination. They also recently announced that all GMC Korean congregations would be in the same non-geographical conference as only one ethnicity (Who looked at that and said, “Gosh, that’s a great idea we haven’t done before?”). They haven’t even had their organizing conference yet–wait until the congregationalist rank and file get ahold of their polity!

So we can already see the bad ideas that come from too many like-minded people in the room on the Global Methodist Church side….now what about United Methodism? Is that our future as well?

Following up on Part 2, where we talked about the three big ticket items, let’s look at the different potential outcomes from the 2024 General Conference and how they set United Methodism on the path to renewal or ruin.

01 Brand New Day: UMC Regionalizes, Revises, and Removes Harm

A future with hope sits on the three-legged stool of recognizing worldwide regionalization, revising the Social Principles, and removing the harmful language against LGBTQ+ persons (see Part 2). This outcome takes us to new heights as it…

• Shifts the LGBTQ+ debate by moving most of that decision to each region, with the continued conversation of our Social Principles that unite us at the General Conference.
• Allows to organize for a mission closer to the ground. The expression of the church can match its missional context without being defined from on high by other cultures. One region does not make decisions for all the other regions, central conferences can keep their values local.
• Buttresses against further disintegration of United Methodism, continues funding across The UMC, and allows us to focus on our mission again after decades spent in the trenches.

02 Justice Deferred: Regionalize but don’t Revise or Remove Harm

Regionalization stands alone and is separate from Revising the Social Principles and Removing Harmful Language. Regionalization has nothing to do with LGBTQ+ inclusion, so it will thankfully be considered on its merits and the current practices. However, if it is the only prevailing idea this season, this outcome is…

• Another gut punch to LGBTQ+ inclusion advocates and members, even with promises it would be considered at the special 2026 GC or that regional conferences would be able to handle the question separately. It kicks the can yet again down the road, all the while progressive congregations are shedding members who cannot choose to remain.
• A problem for the different regions because instead of starting from a place of relative neutrality (removing language across the board), each region would start from a place of exclusion and have to choose inclusion. Having no language as a blank canvas would be better.

03 Stuck in the Trenches: Revise and Remove Harm, but don’t Regionalize.

Revising the Social Principles and Removing the harmful language against LGBTQ+ persons are AMAZING goals, but doing so without passing Regionalization (even though it has a higher vote threshold) is hugely problematic. This outcome…

• Fails to recognize that regionalization is already the de facto practice of United Methodism. Our regions have shown their willingness to choose how open or closed their regions are to LGBTQ+ persons. The hoped-for polity is affirming the practice, not opening the UMC to new practices.
• Fails to put up higher walls between regions, continuing our current colonial structure where one region could continue to dominate all the rest of them.
• Continues to replicate the politics that led us into this mess in the first place. Without stronger regional authority in the Constitution, everything is up to a majority vote again like in the past and we become a wishy-washy church every four years again.

So this is a future to avoid if we want a church that gets out of the trenches and into the mission field.

04 End of Line: No Regionalization, No Revision, No Remove Harm

This is the least likely scenario because there is significant momentum behind the revision of the Social Principles since they included so many global voices in their work, and the removal of harmful language has strong numbers so far. Regionalization is a higher bar to pass, of course. But it’s very possible that none of these things will pass. In this outcome:

• Regionalization would continue to be the practice of United Methodism – but its need to be recognized and regulated would become even more stark as every jurisdiction in the USA becomes LGBTQ+ inclusive in practice (and some other annual conferences as well) and every central conference continues similarly unsanctioned local practices.
• Nobody wins. For some, they’ll feel the need to leave. For many, the struggle will continue. But it’s a bummer of a conference that calls into serious doubt operations as usual if even a more aligned UMC cannot agree on what structure is best for it.

Even in this bleak night, there’s a distant hope: The Bishops have already called for a 2026 General Conference, which would use much of the same delegates as in 2024. It’s possible this could be used for a do-over or reconsideration of any of these items (or a reconsideration of the church budget because it failed to regionalize), but justice deferred is justice denied, and would do a lot of harm in the interim.

The Future is Ours

I am looking forward to any post-2024 General Conference when we debate again about deep theology and social issues. Because then, I know I’m arguing with people who have the life and trajectory of The United Methodist Church in the goodness of their heart.

I believe the delegates to the 2024 General Conference hold this value too, and it saddens me to see outside caucus groups that are just trying to tear it apart like a corporate vulture using methods they have sought for over 20 years.

May we follow Jeremiah 29 and seek a future with hope…and it can all start at the end of April 2024.

Your Turn

The past – recent and historical – have not been kind to The United Methodist Church, by our own self-inflicted wounds and by the structure of our denomination allowing bad actors free reign to cause harm and to exit people, property, and enthusiasm from the denomination.

Will we take action at General Conference to unify and transform the world, or will we have been so poisoned by bad actors to be left again in the trenches of disarray? 

The choice is yours. Be in prayer for our delegates at General Conference at the end of April 2024.

Thoughts?

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